AGA Winter Heating Outlook: Natural gas keeps household energy costs in check
Natural gas remains a small slice of the family budget as the United States heads into the 2025-2026 heating season. AGA’s 2025 Winter Heating Outlook confirmed that while a colder than average winter may mean customers consume more natural gas to heat their homes, household natural gas bills are expected to remain about 8% below the higher prices of a few years ago. That’s good news as families sit down around the kitchen table. Natural gas spending accounts for only 1.1% of the average household’s annual expenses, or about $867. That is less than gasoline at $2,449, electricity at $1,763 and cell phone service at $1,270.
These numbers are the result of a system that is adding supply and using energy more efficiently. Technically recoverable domestic natural gas resources are up 16% over two years ago. Production is at record levels, driven by American innovation that has made each well more efficient than ever before thanks to improvements in technology. Storage inventories are also above the five-year average as the withdrawal season begins. Thanks in large part to energy efficiency programs put in place and administered by America’s natural gas utilities, which helps serve more customers while holding down bills regardless of the temperature.
“Natural gas continues to be America’s strategic advantage for affordable, reliable energy heading into the 2025-2026 winter heating season,” said AGA Vice President of Energy Markets, Analysis and Standards Richard Meyer. “Demand for natural gas has surged and increased production, energy efficiency gains and robust domestic storage have allowed the industry to keep pace, setting the stage for continued affordability and reliability for American consumers.”
Demand for American natural gas is growing. Expectations have risen by 5% to 9% through 2026 in part due to LNG exports. In response, the natural gas drilling rig count is up 18% even as oil activity has declined. Thanks to our robust domestic supplies, inflation-adjusted natural gas prices remain historically low, which supports affordable service for families, businesses and industry.
Even with these low prices, winter heating costs can be challenging for some. America’s natural gas utilities continue to assist low-income customers as part of their mission to deliver vital energy to the people of their communities.
“Natural gas utilities are part of the communities they serve, and work hard every day to put customers first, ensuring they have the energy they need when they need it,” Meyer continued. “Several energy assistance programs are available – including weatherization assistance to make sure your house is winter-ready. Check with your utility to see what programs may be available to you.”
The outlook is clear. Record supply, full storage and continued efficiency are working together to keep natural gas affordable for American households, even with colder weather on the way.