AGA Winter Outlook:
Natural gas provides a budget-friendly heating option for American families and businesses this winter

Households that heat with natural gas are projected to spend 14% less on space heating this winter than last year, according to the American Gas Association’s Winter Heating Outlook. Strong natural gas production and storage have kept natural gas prices lower than last winter, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration projecting record dry natural gas production averaging 111.7 Bcf per day in 2026, contributing to the highest pre-winter storage level since 2016.

“This winter’s story for natural gas consumers is about lower prices and reliable service,” said Richard Meyer, Vice President of Energy Markets, Analysis and Standards at the American Gas Association. “Natural gas enters this winter in a strong supply position. The market’s response to increasing demand is leading to lower prices for families and businesses. Record production and robust storage are helping to meet growing demand while supporting reliable, budget friendly energy for American families and businesses this winter.”

While the cost of other home energy sources, including heating oil and electricity, is expected to increase this winter, natural gas prices remain the most affordable home heating option for households and businesses. AGA analysis estimates average November to March space-heating expenditures of $497 with natural gas compared with $794 for electricity after adjusting for climate and heating conditions. These estimates are for space heating only. Actual household costs will vary with weather, location, home characteristics, and local energy rates. On an energy-equivalent basis, electricity is expected to cost 4.2 times more than natural gas and rise in cost 2.6% from last winter.

Even as the number of natural gas customers grows, energy-efficiency programs, better-insulated buildings and improved appliances are reducing consumption per customer. Since 2017, average natural gas use for winter heating has declined by approximately 1.5% annually, meaning a typical home requires less energy to stay warm.

Natural gas utilities plan all year to be prepared for winter. Supply planning through diverse portfolios, storage and price management strategies, along with continued infrastructure investment, helps utilities prepare for extreme conditions and manage costs for consumers. Together, these efforts help ensure customers have reliable energy while managing the costs of heating their homes and businesses.

See the full winter outlook presentation here.