Energy Insights: Normalized Natural Gas Use per Residential Gas Customer

• Normalized natural gas use per residential gas customer fell 48% between 1971 and 2021, or 1.29% per year for 51 years.
• Since the significant winter heating season in 2014, use per customer has declined at a faster rate than the decade average (0.63% versus 0.48%). 2021 alone declined by 0.83%. In prior decades, most years showed a decline:
  • Annual rate of decline, 1970-1979 =  1.06%
  • Annual rate of decline, 1980-1989 =  1.26%
  • Annual rate of decline, 1990-1999 =  0.89%
  • Annual rate of decline, 2000-2009 =  1.51%
  • Annual rate of decline, 2010-2020 =  0.48%
  • Annual rate of decline, 2014-2020 =  0.63%
  • Annual rate of decline, 2020-2021 =  0.83%
• Non-weather-dependent appliances such as cooking stoves, water heaters, and dryers have seen significant reductions in average consumption of natural gas per customer. Non-weather-dependent use of natural gas per customer has declined at an average annual rate of 1.82% since 1971.
• Based on the 2021 U.S. Census Bureau American Housing Survey, the average gas household uses two to three natural gas appliances.

Supplemental Materials from AGA’s Normalized Use per Customer Model

Methodology

• Non-weather-dependent appliance volumes are assumed to match the average consumption during July and August, with the excess consumption in other months assumed to be weather-sensitive.
• Weather-sensitive heating demand is normalized by multiplying load by the ratio of 30-year normal heating degree days over actual annual calendar heating degree days.

Source: Based on data from Energy Information Administration and NOAA Utility Weighted Heating Degree Data.

AGA Contact: Brendan O’Brien (bobrien@aga.org) 202-824-7220.

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