Surging Growth, Strong Supply – NGMI 501
For more than two decades, AGA’s biweekly Natural Gas Market Indicators have provided insights and analysis on the state of American natural gas markets. After the 500th edition looked back at how…
For more than two decades, AGA’s biweekly Natural Gas Market Indicators have provided insights and analysis on the state of American natural gas markets. After the 500th edition looked back at how far the market has come, the 501st NGMI turns the page and looks ahead: what do today’s leading outlooks suggest about prices, production, demand, exports and the infrastructure needed to keep the system reliable as new loads emerge?
The 501st edition draws on near-term projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Rystad Energy, presenting annual outlooks as ranges and midpoints to reflect prevailing expectations.
Key takeaways from NGMI 501 include:
- Production is expected to continue to rise but forecasts differ on how much. With December 2025 production around 109.5 Bcf per day, EIA and Rystad both expect growth through 2030, although there is a 5.6 Bcf per day gap between outlooks by December 2027, and a midpoint view that production could reach about 121 Bcf per day by 2030, roughly 13% higher than 2025.
- Demand outlook hinges on power-sector assumptions. By 2030, domestic consumption is expected to land near 84 Bcf per day, with estimates ranging from about 80 to 88 Bcf per day. The differing estimates are driven primarily by electricity generation choices: the power sector accounts for nearly 80% of the divergence across projections, reflecting different expectations about how new demand will be met and what mix of firm resources will be built and dispatched.
- Exports remain a defining feature of the decade. NGMI 501 finds net exports projected to rise through 2030, with a midpoint projection of a 42% increase in net annual exports between 2026 and 2030 and 2030 projections ranging from roughly 23 to 27 Bcf per day. LNG is the primary driver, with projected net LNG exports rising about 47% to 57% between 2026 and 2030.
- Infrastructure growth stays concentrated on the Gulf Coast. EIA expects U.S. LNG export capacity to increase by about 13.9 Bcf per day between 2025 and 2029, building on 15.4 Bcf per day of capacity as the U.S. remains the world’s largest LNG exporter. NGMI 501 also highlights that pipeline expansions have been heavily Gulf Coast-focused, with about 93% of 2025 capacity additions terminating in the region and roughly 64% of expected 2026–2030 buildout still tied to the Gulf Coast.
To read the full 501st NGMI, click here.