Winter Heating Outlook: Natural Gas Offers Affordable, Reliable Heating for American Families and Businesses
AGA’s Winter Heating Outlook shows strong natural gas supply and continued efficiency gains are helping customers manage winter heating costs.
As cold weather approaches, households and businesses are preparing for another winter heating season. According to the American Gas Association’s Winter Heating Outlook, natural gas customers are projected to spend 14% less on space heating this winter than they did last year.
That affordability is supported by strong natural gas production and storage. In fact, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects record dry natural gas production averaging 111.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, while natural gas storage is on track for its highest pre-winter level since 2016.
Natural gas remains a budget-friendly heating option
While the cost of other home heating options, including electricity and heating oil, is going up, natural gas customers will be seeing more affordable bills. AGA’s analysis projects average November to March space heating expenditures of approximately $497 for natural gas, compared with $794 for electricity, after adjusting for climate and heating conditions.
On an energy-equivalent basis, electricity is expected to cost approximately 4.2 times more than natural gas for space heating and rise in cost 2.6% from last winter, while the cost of heating oil is increasing 30%. Actual household costs will vary with weather, location, home characteristics, and local energy rates.
Efficiency is helping customers use less energy
The outlook also points to efficiency improvements as a key reason households can get more from the natural gas that they use.
Energy-efficiency programs, better-insulated buildings and more efficient appliances have contributed to declining winter natural gas consumption per customer. Since 2017, average natural gas use for winter heating has declined by approximately 1.5% annually.
That means a typical home uses less energy to stay warm than it did several years ago.
Preparing for winter, year-round
Natural gas utilities spend the year preparing to meet demand on the coldest and warmest days. Diverse supply portfolios, storage, price-management strategies and continued infrastructure investment all play a role in helping utilities manage changing demand and prepare for periods of extreme weather.
Together, these efforts help provide customers with reliable energy while managing the cost of heating homes and businesses throughout the winter.
See the full Winter Heating Outlook here.